Overnight desaturation in interstitial lung diseases: links to pulmonary vasculopathy and mortality.

Background: Overnight desaturation predicts poor prognosis across interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether nocturnal desaturation is associated with pulmonary vasculopathy and mortality. Methods: A retrospective single centre study of 397 new ILD patients was carried out including patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) (n=107) and patients with non-IPF fibrotic ILD (n=290). This is the largest study to date of the effect of significant nocturnal desaturation (SND) (≥10% of total sleep time with oxygen saturation ≤90% measured by pulse oximetry). Results: The prevalence of SND was 28/107 (26.2%) in IPF and 80/290 (27.6%) in non-IPF ILD. The prevalence of SND was higher in non-IPF ILDs than in IPF (p=0.025) in multivariate analysis. SND was associated with noninvasive markers of pulmonary hypertension (PH): tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TRV) (p<0.0001), brain natriuretic peptide (p<0.007), carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (p<0.0001), A-a gradient (p<0.0001), desaturation >4% in 6-min walking test (p<0.03) and pulmonary artery diameter (p<0.005). SND was independently associated with high echocardiographic PH probability in the entire cohort (OR 2.865, 95% CI 1.486-5.522, p<0.002) and in non-IPF fibrotic ILD (OR 3.492, 95% CI 1.597-7.636, p<0.002) in multivariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, SND was associated with mortality in the entire cohort (OR 1.734, 95% CI 1.202-2.499, p=0.003) and in IPF (OR 1.908, 95% CI 1.120-3.251, p=0.017) and non-IPF fibrotic ILD (OR 1.663, 95% CI 1.000-2.819, p=0.041). Separate models with exclusion of each one of the diagnostic subgroups showed that no subgroup was responsible for this finding in non-IPF ILDs. SND was a stronger marker of 5-year mortality than markers of PH. Conclusion: SND was associated with high echocardiographic probability and mortality and was a stronger predictor of mortality in IPF and non-IPF ILDs grouped together to power the study.

Real-world experience of nintedanib for progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease in the UK.

Background: Nintedanib slows progression of lung function decline in patients with progressive fibrosing (PF) interstitial lung disease (ILD) and was recommended for this indication within the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service in Scotland in June 2021 and in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in November 2021. To date, there has been no national evaluation of the use of nintedanib for PF-ILD in a real-world setting. Methods: 26 UK centres were invited to take part in a national service evaluation between 17 November 2021 and 30 September 2022. Summary data regarding underlying diagnosis, pulmonary function tests, diagnostic criteria, radiological appearance, concurrent immunosuppressive therapy and drug tolerability were collected via electronic survey. Results: 24 UK prescribing centres responded to the service evaluation invitation. Between 17 November 2021 and 30 September 2022, 1120 patients received a multidisciplinary team recommendation to commence nintedanib for PF-ILD. The most common underlying diagnoses were hypersensitivity pneumonitis (298 out of 1120, 26.6%), connective tissue disease associated ILD (197 out of 1120, 17.6%), rheumatoid arthritis associated ILD (180 out of 1120, 16.0%), idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (125 out of 1120, 11.1%) and unclassifiable ILD (100 out of 1120, 8.9%). Of these, 54.4% (609 out of 1120) were receiving concomitant corticosteroids, 355 (31.7%) out of 1120 were receiving concomitant mycophenolate mofetil and 340 (30.3%) out of 1120 were receiving another immunosuppressive/modulatory therapy. Radiological progression of ILD combined with worsening respiratory symptoms was the most common reason for the diagnosis of PF-ILD. Conclusion: We have demonstrated the use of nintedanib for the treatment of PF-ILD across a broad range of underlying conditions. Nintedanib is frequently co-prescribed alongside immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapy. The use of nintedanib for the treatment of PF-ILD has demonstrated acceptable tolerability in a real-world setting.

Serum C-reactive protein is associated with earlier mortality across different interstitial lung diseases.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The acute-phase protein C-reactive protein (CRP) is known to be associated with poor outcomes in cancer and cardiovascular disease, but there is limited evidence of its prognostic implications in interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We therefore set out to test whether baseline serum CRP levels are associated with mortality in four different ILDs. METHODS: In this retrospective study, clinically measured CRP levels, as well as baseline demographics and lung function measures, were collected for ILD patients first presenting to the Royal Brompton Hospital between January 2010 and December 2019. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the relationship with 5-year mortality. RESULTS: Patients included in the study were: idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) n = 422, fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) n = 233, rheumatoid arthritis associated ILD (RA-ILD) n = 111 and Systemic Sclerosis associated ILD (SSc-ILD) n = 86. Patients with a recent history of infection were excluded. Higher CRP levels were associated with shorter 5-year survival in all four disease groups on both univariable analyses, and after adjusting for age, gender, smoking history, immunosuppressive therapy and baseline disease severity (IPF: HR (95% CI): 1.3 (1.1-1.5), p = 0.003, fHP: 1.5 (1.2-1.9), p = 0.001, RA-ILD: 1.4 (1.1-1.84), p = 0.01 and SSc-ILD: 2.7 (1.6-4.5), p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Higher CRP levels are independently associated with reduced 5-year survival in IPF, fHP, RA-ILD and SSc-ILD.

Antibody predictors of mortality and lung function trends in myositis spectrum interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of autoantibody profiles on prognosis of idiopathic inflammatory myositis associated interstitial lung disease (IIM-ILD) and myositis spectrum ILD with Myositis Specific Antibodies (MSA) remains unclear. This retrospective cohort study examines whether serological profiles are associated with mortality and longitudinal lung function change. METHODS: Baseline clinical/demographic characteristics and follow-up lung function of consecutive adult patients with IIM-ILD or Interstitial Pneumonia with Autoimmune Features (IPAF) positive for MSAs were extracted from three hospitals. Univariate and multi-variate Cox-Proportional Hazards analyses were used to compare mortality between autoantibodies. Regression models were used to analyse lung function trends. RESULTS: Of 430 included patients, 81% met IIM criteria, 19% were IPAF-MSA. On univariate analysis, risk factors associated with mortality included higher age, Charlson Co-morbidity Index and CRP; and lower BMI, baseline TLCO% and FEV1%. Compared to anti-MDA5-negativity, anti-MDA5-positivity (MDA5+) was associated with high mortality in the first 3 months (HR 65.2. 95%CI 14.1, 302.0), while no significant difference was seen thereafter (HR 0.55, 95%CI 0.14, 2.28). On multi-variate analysis, combined anti-synthetase antibodies carried a reduced risk of mortality (HR 0.63), although individually, mortality was reduced in anti-Jo1 + (HR 0.61, 95%CI 0.4-0.87) and increased in anti-PL7+ patients (HR 2.07, 95%CI 1.44-2.99). Anti-MDA5+ was associated with slow improvement in %FVC over the first 3 years, while anti-PL7+ was linked with a slow decline from 12 months onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Among autoantibody profiles in myositis spectrum disorders, anti-MDA5+ and anti-PL7+ confer higher mortality risks. Survivors of an early peak of mortality in anti-MDA5+ disease appear to have a favourable prognosis.

Combination of BAL and Computed Tomography Differentiates Progressive and Non-progressive Fibrotic Lung Diseases.

Rationale: Identifying patients with pulmonary fibrosis (PF) at risk of progression can guide management. Objectives: To explore the utility of combining baseline BAL and computed tomography (CT) in differentiating progressive and nonprogressive PF. Methods: The derivation cohort consisted of incident cases of PF for which BAL was performed as part of a diagnostic workup. A validation cohort was prospectively recruited with identical inclusion criteria. Baseline thoracic CT scans were scored for the extent of fibrosis and usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern. The BAL lymphocyte proportion was recorded. Annualized FVC decrease of >10% or death within 1 year was used to define disease progression. Multivariable logistic regression identified the determinants of the outcome. The optimum binary thresholds (maximal Wilcoxon rank statistic) at which the extent of fibrosis on CT and the BAL lymphocyte proportion could distinguish disease progression were identified. Measurements and Main Results: BAL lymphocyte proportion, UIP pattern, and fibrosis extent were significantly and independently associated with disease progression in the derivation cohort (n = 240). Binary thresholds for increased BAL lymphocyte proportion and extensive fibrosis were identified as 25% and 20%, respectively. An increased BAL lymphocyte proportion was rare in patients with a UIP pattern (8 of 135; 5.9%) or with extensive fibrosis (7 of 144; 4.9%). In the validation cohort (n = 290), an increased BAL lymphocyte proportion was associated with a significantly lower probability of disease progression in patients with nonextensive fibrosis or a non-UIP pattern. Conclusions: BAL lymphocytosis is rare in patients with extensive fibrosis or a UIP pattern on CT. In patients without a UIP pattern or with limited fibrosis, a BAL lymphocyte proportion of ⩾25% was associated with a lower likelihood of progression.

Comparison of high-intensity interval training versus moderate-intensity continuous training in pulmonary rehabilitation for interstitial lung disease: a randomised controlled pilot feasibility trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the feasibility and efficacy of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) compared with moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) in pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) for people with interstitial lung disease (ILD). DESIGN: Single-centre, randomised controlled feasibility, pilot trial. SETTING: Patients were recruited from the chest clinic of a tertiary ILD centre and attended circuit-based PR in the hospital's gym, followed by a personalised 6-month community programme. PARTICIPANTS: 58 patients, stratified per ILD type, were randomised into two groups: 33 to HIIT (18 males:15 females) (mean age (SD): 70.2 (11.4) years) and 25 to the MICT exercise mode (14 males:11 females) (mean age (SD): 69.8 (10.8) years). INTERVENTIONS: 8-week, twice weekly, circuit-based PR programme of exercise and education, followed by a personalised 6-month community exercise programme. OUTCOME MEASURES: Feasibility outcomes included staff-to-patient ratio and dropout rates per group. Primary outcome was the 6 min walk distance (6MWD). Secondary outcomes included the sniff nasal pressure, mouth inspiratory and expiratory pressures, handgrip and quadriceps strength and health status. Random-effects models were used to evaluate average variation in outcomes through time across the two groups. RESULTS: The 6MWD peaked earlier with HIIT compared with MICT (at 4 months vs 5 months) but values were lower at peak (mean (95% CI): 26.3 m (3.5 to 49.1) vs 51.6 m (29.2 to 73.9)) and declined faster at 6 months post-PR. Secondary outcomes showed similar faster but smaller improvements with HIIT over MICT and more consistent maintenance 6 months post-PR with MICT than HIIT. CONCLUSIONS: HIIT is feasible in circuit-based ILD PR programmes and provides quick improvements but requires closer supervision of training and resources than MICT and benefits may be less well sustained. This would make it a less attractive option for clinical PR programmes. A definitive, multicentre randomised controlled trial is required to address the role of HIIT in ILD. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN55846300.

Nintedanib for non-IPF progressive pulmonary fibrosis: 12-month outcome data from a real-world multicentre observational study.

Background: Nintedanib slows lung function decline for patients with non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in clinical trials, but the real-world safety and efficacy are not known. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, standardised data were collected from patients in whom nintedanib was initiated for PPF between 2019 and 2020 through an early-access programme across eight centres in the United Kingdom. Rate of lung function change in the 12 months pre- and post-nintedanib initiation was the primary analysis. Symptoms, drug safety, tolerability and stratification by interstitial lung disease subtype and computed tomography pattern were secondary analyses. Results: 126 patients were included; 67 (53%) females; mean±sd age 60±13 years. At initiation of nintedanib, mean forced vital capacity (FVC) was 1.87 L (58% predicted) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) was 32.7% predicted. 68% of patients were prescribed prednisolone (median dose 10 mg) and 69% were prescribed a steroid-sparing agent. In the 12 months after nintedanib initiation, lung function decline was significantly lower than in the preceding 12 months: FVC -88.8 mL versus -239.9 mL (p=0.004), and absolute decline in D LCO -2.1% versus -6.1% (p=0.004). Response to nintedanib was consistent in sensitivity and secondary analyses. 89 (71%) out of 126 patients reported side-effects, but 86 (80%) of the surviving 108 patients were still taking nintedanib at 12 months with patients reporting a reduced perception of symptom decline. There were no serious adverse events. Conclusion: In PPF, the real-world efficacy of nintedanib replicated that of clinical trials, significantly attenuating lung function decline. Despite the severity of disease, nintedanib was safe and well tolerated in this real-world multicentre study.

Validation of Proposed Criteria for Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Criteria for progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) have been proposed, but their prognostic value beyond categorical decline in FVC remains unclear. Objectives: To determine whether proposed PPF criteria predict transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) forms of interstitial lung disease (ILD). Methods: A retrospective, multicenter cohort analysis was performed. Patients with diagnoses of fibrotic connective tissue disease-associated ILD, fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and non-IPF idiopathic interstitial pneumonia from three U.S. centers and one UK center constituted the test and validation cohorts, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to test the association between 5-year TFS and ⩾10% FVC decline, followed by 13 additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of ⩾10% FVC decline. Measurements and Main Results: One thousand three hundred forty-one patients met the inclusion criteria. A ⩾10% relative FVC decline was the strongest predictor of reduced TFS and showed consistent TFS association across cohorts, ILD subtypes, and treatment groups, resulting in a phenotype that closely resembled IPF. Ten additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of 10% relative FVC decline were also associated with reduced TFS in the U.S. test cohort, with 6 maintaining TFS associations in the UK validation cohort. Validated PPF criteria requiring a combination of physiologic, radiologic, and symptomatic worsening performed similarly to their stand-alone components but captured a smaller number of patients. Conclusions: An FVC decline of ⩾10% and six additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of such decline identify patients with non-IPF ILD at increased risk for death or lung transplantation.

Phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor treatment and survival in interstitial lung disease pulmonary hypertension: A Bayesian retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary hypertension is a life-limiting complication of interstitial lung disease (ILD-PH). We investigated whether treatment with phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) in patients with ILD-PH was associated with improved survival. METHODS: Consecutive incident patients with ILD-PH and right heart catheterisation, echocardiography and spirometry data were followed from diagnosis to death, transplantation or censoring with all follow-up and survival data modelled by Bayesian methods. RESULTS: The diagnoses in 128 patients were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 74, 58%), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 17, 13%), non-specific interstitial pneumonia (n = 12, 9%), undifferentiated ILD (n = 8, 6%) and other lung diseases (n = 17, 13%). Final outcomes were death (n = 106, 83%), transplantation (n = 9, 7%) and censoring (n = 13, 10%). Patients treated with PDE5i (n = 50, 39%) had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (median 38 mm Hg [interquartile range, IQR: 34, 43] vs. 35 mm Hg [IQR: 31, 38], p = 0.07) and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC; median 57% [IQR: 51, 73] vs. 52% [IQR: 45, 66], p=0.08) though differences did not reach significance. Patients treated with PDE5i survived longer than untreated patients (median 2.18 years [95% CI: 1.43, 3.04] vs. 0.94 years [0.69, 1.51], p = 0.003) independent of all other prognostic markers by Bayesian joint-modelling (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.59, p < 0.001) and propensity-matched analyses (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.58, p < 0.001). Survival difference with treatment was significantly larger if right ventricular function was normal, rather than abnormal, at presentation (+2.55 years, 95% CI: -0.03, +3.97 vs. +0.98 years, 95% CI: +0.47, +2.00, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: PDE5i treatment in ILD-PH should be investigated by a prospective randomized trial.

Lung cancer screening provides an opportunity for early diagnosis and treatment of interstitial lung disease.

Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) can be incidentally detected in patients undergoing low-dose CT screening for lung cancer. In this retrospective study, we explore the downstream impact of ILA detection on interstitial lung disease (ILD) diagnosis and treatment. Using a targeted approach in a lung cancer screening programme, the rate of de novo ILD diagnosis was 1.5%. The extent of abnormality on CT and severity of lung function impairment, but not symptoms were the most important factors in differentiating ILA from ILD. Disease modifying therapies were commenced in 39% of ILD cases, the majority being antifibrotic therapy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

CYFRA 21-1 Predicts Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Prospective Longitudinal Analysis of the PROFILE Cohort.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and inevitably fatal condition for which there are a lack of effective biomarkers to guide therapeutic decision making. Objectives: To determine the relationship between serum concentrations of the cytokeratin fragment CYFRA 21-1 and disease progression and mortality in individuals with IPF enrolled in the Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints (PROFILE) study. Methods: CYFRA 21-1 was identified by immunohistochemistry in samples of human lung obtained at surgery. Concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were measured using an ELISA-based assay in serum samples collected at baseline, 1 month, and 3 months from 491 individuals with an incident diagnosis of IPF who were enrolled in the PROFILE study and from 100 control subjects at baseline. Study subjects were followed for a minimum of 3 years after their first blood draw. Measurements and Main Results: CYFRA 21-1 localizes to hyperplastic epithelium in IPF lung tissue. Peripheral CYFRA 21-1 concentrations were significantly higher in subjects with IPF than in healthy control subjects in both the discovery (n = 132) (control: 0.96 ± 0.81 ng/ml; vs. IPF: 2.34 ± 2.15 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) and validation (n = 359) (control: 2.21 ± 1.54 ng/ml; and IPF: 4.13 ± 2.77 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) cohorts. Baseline concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were able to distinguish individuals at risk of 12-month disease progression (C-statistic, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.79; P < 0.0001) and were predictive of overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19] per 1 ng/ml increase in CYFRA 21-1; P = 0.0001). Furthermore, 3-month change in concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 separately predicted 12-month and overall survival in both the discovery and validation cohorts. Conclusions: CYFRA 21-1, a marker of epithelial damage and turnover, has the potential to be an important prognostic and therapeutic biomarker in individuals with IPF.

Short-term lung function changes predict mortality in patients with fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: A proportion of patients with fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) follow a progressive disease course despite immunosuppressive treatment. Little is known about predictors of mortality in fHP. We aimed to investigate the impact of short-term lung function changes in fHP on mortality. METHODS: Baseline demographics for 145 consecutive patients with a multi-disciplinary team diagnosis of fHP, as well as baseline and 1-year follow-up of lung function, baseline echocardiographic findings, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cellularity and all-cause mortality were recorded. Changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) ≥ 5% and ≥10%, and diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) ≥ 10% and ≥15% at 1 year were calculated. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to test for associations with mortality. RESULTS: Baseline lung function severity, age, presence of honeycombing on computed tomography (CT) and echocardiographic pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) ≥ 40 mm Hg were associated with early mortality, while BAL lymphocytosis was associated with improved survival. A decline in FVC ≥ 5% (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.10, 95% CI: 2.00-4.81, p < 0.001), FVC ≥ 10% (HR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.94-4.99, p < 0.001), DLCO ≥ 10% (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.78-4.42, p < 0.001) and DLCO ≥ 15% (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.18-4.72, p < 0.001) at 1 year was associated with markedly reduced survival on univariable and multivariable analyses after correcting for demographic variables, disease severity, honeycombing on CT and treatment, as well as BAL lymphocytosis and PASP ≥ 40 mm Hg on echocardiography, in separate models. CONCLUSION: Worsening in FVC and DLCO at 1 year, including a marginal decline in FVC ≥ 5% and DLCO ≥ 10%, is predictive of markedly reduced survival in fHP.

Lung function trajectory in progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND: Proposed criteria for progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (PF-ILD) have been linked to increased mortality risk, but lung function trajectory after satisfying individual criteria remains unknown. Because survival is rarely employed as the primary end-point in therapeutic trials, identifying PF-ILD criteria that best predict subsequent change in forced vital capacity (FVC) could improve clinical trial design. METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre longitudinal cohort analysis was performed in consecutive patients with fibrotic connective tissue disease-associated ILD (CTD-ILD), chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and idiopathic interstitial pneumonia at three US centres (test cohort) and one UK centre (validation cohort). 1-year change in FVC after satisfying proposed PF-ILD criteria was estimated using joint modelling. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether results varied across key subgroups. RESULTS: 1227 patients were included, with CTD-ILD predominating. Six out of nine PF-ILD criteria were associated with differential 1-year change in FVC, with radiological progression of fibrosis, alone and in combination with other features, associated with the largest subsequent decline in FVC. Findings varied significantly by ILD subtype, with CTD-ILD demonstrating little change in FVC after satisfying most PF-ILD criteria, while other ILDs showed significantly larger changes. Findings did not vary after stratification by radiological pattern or exposure to immunosuppressant therapy. Near-term change in FVC after satisfying proposed PF-ILD criteria was heterogeneous depending on the criterion assessed and was strongly influenced by ILD subtype. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may inform future clinical trial design and suggest ILD subtype should be taken into consideration when applying PF-ILD criteria.

Retrospective case-control study to evaluate hypocalcaemia as a distinguishing feature of COVID-19 compared with other infective pneumonias and its association with disease severity.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether calcium derangement was a specific feature of COVID-19 that distinguishes it from other infective pneumonias, and its association with disease severity. DESIGN: A retrospective observational case-control study looking at serum calcium on adult patients with COVID-19, and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) or viral pneumonia (VP). SETTING: A district general hospital on the outskirts of London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 506 patients with COVID-19, 95 patients with CAP and 152 patients with VP. OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline characteristics including hypocalcaemia in patients with COVID-19, CAP and VP were detailed. For patients with COVID-19, the impact of an abnormally low calcium level on the maximum level of hospital care, as a surrogate of COVID-19 severity, was evaluated. The primary outcome of maximal level of care was based on the WHO Clinical Progression Scale for COVID-19. RESULTS: Hypocalcaemia was a specific and common clinical finding in patients with COVID-19 that distinguished it from other respiratory infections. Calcium levels were significantly lower in those with severe disease. Ordinal regression of risk estimates for categorised care levels showed that baseline hypocalcaemia was incrementally associated with OR of 2.33 (95% CI 1.5 to 3.61) for higher level of care, superior to other variables that have previously been shown to predict worse COVID-19 outcome. Serial calcium levels showed improvement by days 7-9 of admission, only in survivors of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Hypocalcaemia is specific to COVID-19 and may help distinguish it from other infective pneumonias. Hypocalcaemia may independently predict severe disease and warrants detailed prognostic investigation. The fact that decreased serum calcium is observed at the time of clinical presentation in COVID-19, but not other infective pneumonias, suggests that its early derangement is pathophysiological and may influence the deleterious evolution of this disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 20/HRA/2344.

Muscle stimulation in advanced idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a randomised placebo-controlled feasibility study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the acceptability of neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) of the quadriceps muscles in people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and to identify whether a future definitive trial is feasible. DESIGN: A randomised, parallel, two-group, participant and assessor-blinded, placebo-controlled feasibility trial with embedded qualitative interviews. SETTING: Outpatient department, Royal Brompton and Harefield Hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-two people with IPF: median (25th, 75th centiles) age 76 (74, 82) years, forced vital capacity 62 (50, 75) % predicted, 6 min walk test distance 289 (149, 360) m. INTERVENTIONS: Usual care (home-based exercise, weekly telephone support, breathlessness management leaflet) with either placebo or active NMES for 6 weeks, with follow-up at 6 and 12 weeks. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Feasibility of recruitment and retention, treatment uptake and adherence, outcome assessments, participant and outcome assessor blinding and adverse events related to interventions. SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcome measures with potential to be primary or secondary outcomes in a definitive clinical trial. In addition, purposively sampled participants were interviewed to capture their experiences and acceptability of the trial. RESULTS: Out of 364 people screened, 23 were recruited: 11 were allocated to each group and one was withdrawn prior to randomisation. Compared with the control group, a greater proportion of the intervention group completed the intervention, remained in the trial blinded to group allocation and experienced intervention-related adverse events. Assessor blinding was maintained. The secondary outcome measures were feasible with most missing data associated with the accelerometer. Small participant numbers precluded identification of an outcome measure suitable for a definitive trial. Qualitative findings demonstrated that trial process and active NMES were acceptable but there were concerns about the credibility of placebo NMES. CONCLUSIONS: Primarily owing to recruitment difficulties, a definitive trial using the current protocol to evaluate NMES in people with IPF is not feasible. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03499275.

Early prognostication of COVID-19 to guide hospitalisation versus outpatient monitoring using a point-of-test risk prediction score.

INTRODUCTION: Risk factors of adverse outcomes in COVID-19 are defined but stratification of mortality using non-laboratory measured scores, particularly at the time of prehospital SARS-CoV-2 testing, is lacking. METHODS: Multivariate regression with bootstrapping was used to identify independent mortality predictors in patients admitted to an acute hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. Predictions were externally validated in a large random sample of the ISARIC cohort (N=14 231) and a smaller cohort from Aintree (N=290). RESULTS: 983 patients (median age 70, IQR 53-83; in-hospital mortality 29.9%) were recruited over an 11-week study period. Through sequential modelling, a five-predictor score termed SOARS (SpO2, Obesity, Age, Respiratory rate, Stroke history) was developed to correlate COVID-19 severity across low, moderate and high strata of mortality risk. The score discriminated well for in-hospital death, with area under the receiver operating characteristic values of 0.82, 0.80 and 0.74 in the derivation, Aintree and ISARIC validation cohorts, respectively. Its predictive accuracy (calibration) in both external cohorts was consistently higher in patients with milder disease (SOARS 0-1), the same individuals who could be identified for safe outpatient monitoring. Prediction of a non-fatal outcome in this group was accompanied by high score sensitivity (99.2%) and negative predictive value (95.9%). CONCLUSION: The SOARS score uses constitutive and readily assessed individual characteristics to predict the risk of COVID-19 death. Deployment of the score could potentially inform clinical triage in preadmission settings where expedient and reliable decision-making is key. The resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission provides an opportunity to further validate and update its performance.